@conference {414,
	title = {Challenging tourism theory through integrated models: How multiple model projects strengthen outcomes through a case study of tourism development on the Ningaloo Coast of Western Australia},
	booktitle = {19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation},
	year = {2011},
	month = {12/2011},
	publisher = {Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand},
	organization = {Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand},
	address = {Perth},
	abstract = {This paper has the dual purpose of challenging tourism planning theory through modelling, and
reflecting on the multi-model collaboration that made this possible and extended the reach of a tourism
modelling project. As such it provides a practice-oriented reflection on collaboration between modelling
projects grounded in a discussion of model outputs and extension activities.
The Ningaloo Destination Modelling (NDM) project was one of five research projects within the Ningaloo
Collaboration Cluster, a program of research that was funded by the CSIRO{\textquoteright}s Wealth from Oceans Flagship.
The NDM project was also funded by the Sustainable Tourism CRC, and collaborated with a number of
organisations including two Shires, state agencies, utility providers, tourism businesses and the Gascoyne
Development Commission to gather data and refine model features and dynamics. The Ningaloo Collaboration
Cluster focussed on the Ningaloo Coast, encompassing the Shires of Carnarvon and Exmouth, in the northwest
of Western Australia. Beginning 900 km north of Perth, the Ningaloo Coast is a remote tourism destination
with a resident population of approximately 8000. It attracts between 170 000 and 200 000 tourists a year. The
growth of tourism and tourism development opportunities relies on the attraction of the region{\textquoteright}s remoteness and
a delicate ecosystem linked to a fringing coral reef that is over 300 kilometres long. Thus inappropriate tourism
development and visitor growth could jeopardise the future of tourism and alienate locals who place a high
importance on the natural environment.
Tourism is an activity that transforms places and communities. It has a variety of thresholds that have been
linked to economic, social and ecological change. The most widely used model of tourism development,
Richard Butlers Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC) model identifies these transformations and thresholds, linking
impacts to six stages of development that are determined by the relationship between visitor numbers and time.
Using four feedback loops (accommodation capacity, worker availability, social impacts, and visitor response to
environmental regulation) together with visitor preferences, the NDM captures the transformative elements of
the TALC, and moves away from deterministic assumptions linking impacts to a {\textquotedblleft}stage{\textquotedblright} of development.
Equally important, development strategies that lessen the undesirable impacts of development can be explored,
indicating that the TALC stages are not the sole direction that tourism development need follow. This is
demonstrated in the paper through a case study of a remote tourism node on Gnaraloo Station, in the middle of
the Ningaloo Coast. A thread that runs through this paper is the influence of multiple modelling projects within
the Ningaloo Collaboration Cluster. The most important influence from the perspective of this paper was the
modelling results, where integration with an ecological model of the region provided a range of ecological
indicators that indicate the influence on key environmental attractions.},
	keywords = {modelling, Ningaloo, tourism},
	isbn = {978-0-9872143-1-7},
	url = {http://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim2011/index.htm},
	attachments = {http://ningaloo-atlas.org.au/sites/default/files/Jones et al. 2011.pdf},
	author = {Jones, T and Fulton, EA and Wood, D},
	editor = {Chan, F and Marinova, D and Anderssen, RS}
}
